Weather Station

El Nino

Weather-implied crop stress vs. what the curve prices

The gap between crop-stress weather and the futures curve — measured, ranked, and mapped to the globe.

15instruments7actionable5long2shorttop call: LONG Soybean Oil
INITIALIZING GLOBE
5 long·2 short
drag to rotate · scroll to zoom · tap a node

Weather-implied supply stress by region (red = bullish, blue = favorable).

favorablefairstress
grey landmass = no producing region / UNKNOWN (never fabricated)

AI does ETL, code computes

An AI session web-searches current public data and writes it into versioned static JSON with a source + date on every value. The site reads that JSON and runs a deterministic engine — no model in the render path. UNKNOWN is shown honestly, never fabricated.

The gap engine

WSSscores weather stress per crop (temp/precip/soil vs the crop's stage ideal, up-weighted in the critical window, tilted by ENSO). MIS scores what the curve already prices (trend + deferred-vs-front term structure). GAP = WSS − MIS → LONG when weather runs ahead of the curve, SHORT when the curve over-prices it.

Calibrate before sizing

Starting values from documented ENSO/crop relationships and standard commodity heuristics — borrowed until backtested. Calibrate against your own history before sizing. Every weight, threshold and bucket lives in one config file. This is an educational / research tool — not financial advice.