Agri Desk
prices11-02

Monday, 2 November 2026 · Singapore morning brief

Funds out — buy soy at the 200-day

Fund liquidation in grains · China buying soybeans · record corn crop · real weak · $102 crude

The plan from Saturday stands: last week was funds selling, not demand leaving, and Monday's Asian session has not changed that. January soybeans (F27) trade 1,236, up 0.14% on the open, under the 20-day (1,266) and 50-day (1,286) averages but 3.3% above the 200-day (1,197). The desk buys the 200-day, not a breakout. Dec corn (Z26) is 449, on its 55-day low with RSI 26 and below the 200-day (459.7); with a record crop behind it, bounces into 460–466 are still sold, half size. Hogs (58.875) and orange juice (132.35) sit at 52-week-low areas, and USD/BRL is up 9.6% in five sessions, which keeps Brazilian coffee and sugar on the defensive. Tonight's Crop Progress (Tue 05:00 SGT) is the first data point of the week; the 10 Nov WASDE is the one that matters for corn.

above 200-day
9/21
up today
8/21
backwardated
KC · RC · SB · GF
crowded long
ZR · ZS · ZM · SB · W · GF
What matters todaydesk view · editorial
  1. 01

    Quiet Monday open after a liquidation week

    Soybeans +0.14%, Dec corn +0.28% and wheat flat in early Asian trade. Last week every market on the board fell; COT to 27 Oct showed specs cutting soybean longs with open interest −10%.

    ZS+0.2%ZC−0.8%ZW0.0%
  2. 02

    Soybeans: above the 200-day, below everything else

    F27 1,236 vs 20-day 1,266, 50-day 1,286, 200-day 1,197. RSI 34, 20-day volatility at the 1st percentile, specs crowded long (rel 73) but cutting. The plan waits for 1,198–1,205.

    ZS+0.2%
  3. 03

    Corn on its 55-day low

    Z26 449 against a 55-day low of 447½ and the 200-day at 459.7; RSI 26, 10% off in 20 sessions. Oversold, but the record-crop balance sheet argues for selling bounces, not buying the low.

    ZC−0.8%ZO+1.4%
  4. 04

    Meal on its 200-day, oil cheap to diesel

    Meal sits at its 200-day (325.1) after a 6.6% 20-day drop; RSI 29. Soy oil 66.00 is 34¢/gal over heating oil, the 3rd percentile of three years; a close above the 50-day (68.36) turns it up.

    ZM−1.4%ZL+0.2%
  5. 05

    The real keeps sliding

    USD/BRL 5.44, +1.0% on the day and +9.6% in five sessions. A weaker real pushes Brazilian coffee and sugar supply onto the market; coffee −6.6% on the week.

    KC+0.6%SB−0.6%
  6. 06

    Meats at lows

    Hogs 58.875, −10.2% on the week, near the 52-week low (58.20) with specs deep short. Cattle fell 2.4% (live) and 3.0% (feeders) on Friday; feeder specs crowded long.

    HE−1.6%LE−2.4%GF−3.0%
02

The board

Every market on one screen, grouped by sector. Changes over 5 and 20 sessions use back-adjusted prices so a contract roll never reads as a move. Click a column to sort; click a row to open it below. ▲▼· are the six reads in the matrix.

Last
Grains
ZCCorn
449.00roll −0.8MIXED
ZWChicago wheat (SRW)
603.500.00%MIXED
KEKansas wheat (HRW)
645.50+0.19%MIXED
EBMParis milling wheat
228.00+0.44%MIXED
ZOOats
348.75+1.45%MIXED
ZRRough rice
17.890−0.08%MIXED
Oilseeds
ZSSoybeans
1,236.25+0.16%MIXED
ZMSoybean meal
324.9roll −1.4MIXED
ZLSoybean oil
66.02+0.18%MIXED
FCPOPalm oil
4,681+1.41%MIXED
Softs
KCArabica coffee
287.20+0.61%MIXED
RCRobusta coffee
3,204+0.88%MIXED
CCNY cocoa
5,453−0.05%MIXED
CLondon cocoa
4,143−0.34%MIXED
SBRaw sugar No. 11
19.36−0.56%LONG
WWhite sugar No. 5
516.3−2.14%MIXED
CTCotton No. 2
77.83−0.85%MIXED
OJOrange juice
132.35−3.32%MIXED
Livestock
LELive cattle
220.950−2.36%MIXED
GFFeeder cattle
331.775−2.98%MIXED
HELean hogs
58.875−1.59%MIXED
03

Today's plan

written 2026-11-02

The desk's trades for the session, with levels drawn to scale and reward/risk computed from them. Written by the desk each morning — opinion, grounded in the numbers on this page. Ag ideas are sized at the library's smallest unit because no ag signal is validated.

Primary

BUY 1,198–1,205

at the 200-day

Soybeans · ZSF27 · last 1,236.25 ¢/bu

R:R t1
1.42
R:R t2
2.36
stop
2.66 ATR
$/lot
2,275
entry 1,198.00–1,205.001,156.00 stop −1R1,266.00 target 1 +1.4R1,309.00 target 2 +2.4R1,236.25today

The uptrend is intact above the 200-day (1,197) and China kept buying (1.63 Mt in the week to 22 Oct). Last week's drop was funds cutting longs into a failed breakout. Buy the 200-day, where a trend pullback should end, rather than chase strength.

Reward/risk · About 1.4R to the 20-day average (1,266) and 2.4R to the 20-day high (1,309), with the stop 2.7 ATR below the entry band's midpoint and under the 55-day low (1,182½).

Size · 0.55% risk (the library's ag unit) → at a ~$2,275/lot stop, one lot per ~$415k of capital.

Invalidated by · A close below 1,156 (2.5 ATR under the 200-day), or weekly export sales without China.

What would add conviction

  • +Price trades into 1,198–1,205 with China sales still ≥1 Mt a week
  • +Monday's Crop Progress puts the soy harvest near complete (hedge pressure ends)
  • +Brazil planting slowed by the wet south

Secondary

SELL RALLIES 460–466

half size

Corn · ZCZ26 · last 449.00 ¢/bu

R:R t1
1
R:R t2
2.36
stop
2.97 ATR
$/lot
1,250
entry 460.00–466.00488.00 stop −1R438.00 target 1 +1.0R404.00 target 2 +2.4R449.00today

Record crop and a large carryout, export sales slowing (1.30 Mt), seasonality negative into late November. Sell a bounce into the 200-day (459.7) and the 468 resistance, never the 55-day low.

Reward/risk · About 1.0R to 438 and 2.4R to the 52-week low area (403¾), with the stop 2.6 ATR above the top of the entry band.

Size · Half the ag unit (0.275% risk) — shorts are discretionary here; the library has no validated short. ~$1,250/lot stop → one lot per ~$455k.

Invalidated by · A close above 488, or the 10 Nov WASDE cutting the yield sharply.

What would add conviction

  • +Price reaches 460–466 on a harvest-delay or short-covering bounce
  • +Export sales stay under 1.5 Mt a week
  • +Roll to March before Dec first notice (30 Nov)

Watch

  • HENear the 52-week low (58.20), specs deep short, RSI 22. A squeeze needs a turn first: only a long on a close back above 67.70.
  • ZLCheapest against diesel in three years (BOHO 3rd percentile) with WTI above $100. A close above the 50-day (68.36) turns the trend back up.
  • OJAt the 52-week-low area (130.25) after −3.3% on Friday, in its strongest seasonal window. Wait for it to hold.
  • CC20-day volatility at its 2nd percentile. A break of 5,561 or 5,431 decides direction.
  • FCPOAt resistance (4,687). MPOB around 10 Nov decides whether the stock peak is in.

Stand aside

  • ZWWheat: 55-day low (593¼), RSI 24, crowded short — but seasonality is negative. No long until price turns.
  • KCCoffee is trading the real (USD/BRL +9.6% in five sessions), not the crop. Backwardated and volatile — no edge until the BRL settles.
  • SBSugar: crowded long and cutting, volatility at its 87th percentile — size would be halved and the BRL is pushing supply out.
  • GFFeeders −3% on Friday with specs crowded long — a technical break into a crowded book. Let it settle.

Event risk

  • 11/02Crop Progress and export inspections (Mon 16:00 ET = Tue 05:00 SGT); US sessions now open an hour later in Singapore.
  • 11/05Weekly export sales — China's soybean pace is the primary trade's condition.
  • 11/10WASDE + Crop Production (Wed 11 Nov 01:00 SGT): the corn yield decides the secondary; no new positions in the 30 minutes before. MPOB palm around the same day (date unconfirmed).
  • 11/13CONAB Brazil crop update (reported date, unconfirmed).
  • 11/30Dec corn first notice — roll the secondary to March (H27) before then.

Read-across matrix

Six reads per market, weighted the way CONSOL weights each layer. The score measures how much they agree — it is not a backtested signal.

MarketTrend×0.555d×0.5R1×1.0COT×0.75Wx×0.4–1.0Seas×0.5ScoreVerdict
SBRaw sugar No. 11▲···▲·+1.50LONG
OJOrange juice▼▼n/an/a▼·−1.40MIXED
ZRRough rice▲·n/a▼▼·−1.25MIXED
RCRobusta coffee▼·n/a▲▲·+1.25MIXED
ZMSoybean meal····▲·+1.00MIXED
ZSSoybeans▲···▲·+0.90MIXED
FCPOPalm oil▲·n/an/a▲·+0.90MIXED
CTCotton No. 2····▼▼−0.90MIXED
CCNY cocoa···▼▲▲+0.75MIXED
ZCCorn▼··▲▲·+0.65MIXED
KCArabica coffee▼··▼▲·−0.55MIXED
EBMParis milling wheat▲·n/an/an/a·+0.50MIXED
CLondon cocoa▲·n/a·n/a·+0.50MIXED
WWhite sugar No. 5▲·n/a·n/a·+0.50MIXED
HELean hogs▼···n/a·−0.50MIXED
ZOOats··n/an/a▲·+0.40MIXED
ZWChicago wheat (SRW)▼···▲·+0.20MIXED
KEKansas wheat (HRW)▼···▲·+0.20MIXED
ZLSoybean oil▼···▲·−0.10MIXED
LELive cattle····n/a·0.00MIXED
GFFeeder cattle····n/a·0.00MIXED
TrendCONTEXT55dCONTEXTR1FROZENCOTLIVEWxUNTESTEDSeasCONTEXT· verdict needs |score| ≥ 1.5 and two reads agreeing; hover a cell for the reason.
04

Focus

One market in depth: a year of daily candles with the 50- and 200-day averages, pivot levels and any plan levels; the curve; two years of fund positioning; seasonality; and why each read in the matrix says what it says.

Grains
Oilseeds
Softs
Livestock
05

Weather & crops

The season's driver is El Niño (NOAA: El Niño Advisory) — weekly Niño-3.4 at +3.4°C, beyond 1997 and 2015 on the same date. The globe shows where each crop's growing regions are stressed and how far the curve has already priced it.

Loading the planet
Ocean temperature against normal
−3 °C0+2+4

Where weather and the curve disagree

Rice (Rough) is the week's widest disagreement: the weather score sits 61 points below what the Mar 2027 contract prices. 15 of 15 instruments show a gap, 12 where the weather runs ahead and 3where the curve does. The weather score is one read in the desk's matrix — it has never been backtested. Hover a row to light its regions on the globe; pick one to read the case.

Every instrument ranked by the size of its weather-versus-curve gap

what the weather sayswhat the curve priceswhere price would move
-500+50
gap
ZRZRH2027Mar 2027

Rice (Rough)

SHORThigh

weather -3 − curve 58

The curve is pricing more tightness (58) than the weather supports (-3); fade the Mar 2027 premium while India Northwest (Wheat/Rice) (favorable rains) holds.

Where the weather score comes from

Bar shows each region's signed stress; the percentage is its share of this crop's weather score after supply-share and critical-window weighting.

What the curve already prices

momentum+65

+6.2% 1m · +28.2% 3m

term structure+50

17.57 → 17.95 USD/cwt

ZRH2027, the contract this trade lives in

No price history for this contract yet.

What would end this

Flip if supply-adverse weather returns to India Northwest (Wheat/Rice) in-window or ZR Mar 2027 closes above 19.03 USD/cwt.

input completeness51%weather 2026-10-27 · prices 2026-10-27

The season's driver: El Nino

El Nino Advisory

On 21 October the weekly Niño-3.4 reading was +3.4 °C. That is 1.1 °C warmer than 2015 and 1.4 °C warmer than 1997 on the same date, and it already equals the highest weekly reading of the entire 2015–16 event.

Weekly Niño-3.4 against 1991–2020, from January of each onset year. NOAA CPC, to 2026-10-21.

Expected peak, on NOAA's strength scale
weakmoderatestrongvery strong
+2.30probability-weighted peak index
Latest week, °C against normal (2026-10-21)
Niño 1+2
+5.2
Niño 3
+4.3
Niño 3.4
+3.4
Niño 4
+1.1
ONI, latest season
+2.2
RONI, latest season
+1.7

Strong-to-very strong El Nino likely through January-March 2027 (greater than 83% chance), with CPC's October table giving 100% very strong for OND 2026. Odds of a HISTORIC event - a 3-month RONI of +2.5C or more, stronger than any El Nino since 1950 - are 54% for SON, 83% for OND and 70% for NDJ (8 Oct discussion, still current). CPC's 15 Oct long-lead discussion puts the peak around NDJ 2026-27, with relative Nino3.4 near +3.0C (CPC consolidation) to +3.5C (NMME), and 80% odds of at least strong El Nino through JFM 2027. IRI's October plume (19 Oct) has all 27 models very strong (Nino3.4 >= +2.0C) from OND through DJF, a multi-model mean near +3.5C in OND and NDJ, and about 10 models at or above +3.5C; El Nino 100% through MAM 2027, easing to 92% AMJ and 60% MJJ. Impact qualifier: 'the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Nino are larger, though not guaranteed' (8 Oct); on the negative PDO, CPC's 15 Oct view is that its winter influence may be minimal given the very strong event.

How the weather score is built

The weather scorereads each crop's anomalies against what its current growth stage needs, weights regions by supply share, multiplies the ones inside their critical window, and tilts the whole thing by El Niño. The curve score reads what price has already done: one- and three-month momentum blended with the carry-adjusted term structure.

The globe draws the live GFS wind and temperature fields, NOAA's daily sea-surface-temperature anomaly, and the real position of the sun. Column height is each growing region's weather stress; its colour is the trade it drives.

Starting values from documented ENSO/crop relationships and standard commodity heuristics — borrowed until backtested. Calibrate against your own history before sizing. Research use, not financial advice.

06

Supply & demand

updated 2026-10-31

The balance sheets and the weekly data that move them. Every figure links to where it came from; anything we could not confirm is listed at the bottom instead of being guessed.

bearZCZO

A record corn crop meets a slow Iowa harvest

USDA's 181.2 bu yield and 1.85 bn bu carryout reset the balance sheet; harvest selling is still ahead with Iowa 20 points behind. Strong exports (1.5 Mt a week) are the offset. Rallies into harvest resistance are sold until the Nov 10 WASDE proves the yield too high.

bullZSZMZL

China is buying US soybeans again

2.18 Mt to China in the week to 15 Oct, another 1.63 Mt in the week to 22 Oct, and a further 297,150 t flash sale to unknown destinations (expected China) on 30 Oct. The cap is Brazil: a 182–190 Mt crop is being planted now and owns the Feb–Jun export window.

bullFCPOCCRCKESB

A very strong El Niño

Weekly Niño-3.4 hit +3.4 °C — beyond 1997 and 2015 on the same date. History says drier Australia, India, Southeast Asia and West Africa and wetter Argentina and southern Brazil. Palm, cocoa, robusta and Australian wheat carry the risk; it arrives with lags of months, which is why the weather section matters.

bullZLFCPO

A biofuel floor under vegetable oils

Record 2026–27 biomass-based diesel volumes keep soy oil tied to diesel. Watch the soyoil–heating oil (BOHO) spread on the spreads panel: it is the margin that decides how much soy oil gets burned.

neutralFCPOZL

Heavy palm stocks, fast exports

3.51 Mt of Malaysian stocks is a near three-year high, but October exports have jumped 58–78%. The next MPOB print (~10 Nov) decides whether stocks have peaked.

bullZWZRCT

Delta flash drought

Arkansas is in exceptional drought and its wheat is 29% planted against 45% normally. It matters for soft red winter wheat area and for rice and cotton harvest quality.

USDA WASDE · 2026-10-09

next 2026-11-10

A bearish surprise for corn: USDA lifted the yield 2.7 bu to 181.2 against a trade guess of 177.6, so US carryout jumped to 1.849 billion bushels — 172 million above the trade average. Soybeans were near neutral (carryout 315 mb vs 311 expected); wheat stocks rose on lower exports.

US corn 2026/27

Yield (bu/ac)181.2+2.7
Production (bn bu)16.034+0.234
Exports (bn bu)3.3+0.025
Ending stocks (bn bu)1.849+0.282
Stocks / use11.3%
Farm price ($/bu)4.70−0.1

vs trade: yield 177.6 · production 15.716 · ending 1.677

US soybeans 2026/27

Yield (bu/ac)53.1+0.3
Production (bn bu)4.562+0.027
Crush (bn bu)2.78unch
Exports (bn bu)1.695
Ending stocks (mn bu)315+5
Farm price ($/bu)12.00unch

vs trade: yield 52.9 · production 4.541 · ending 311

US wheat 2026/27

Production (bn bu)1.534+0.003
Exports (mn bu)750−25
Ending stocks (mn bu)740+23
Farm price ($/bu)6.30−0.1

vs trade: ending 722

World ending stocks, Mt (vs September · trade guess)

Corn 280.44 (+8.3 · 273.9)Soybeans 124.28 (+0.28 · 123.8)Wheat 276.04 (−0.25 · 276.8)

USDA WASDE 9 Oct 2026, via DTN 'USDA Reports Summary'

Crop progress · week to 2026-10-25

next 2026-11-02

Corn harvest is six points behind average and Iowa — the largest state — is twenty behind, so harvest selling is still ahead of us into November. Soybeans are ahead. The Delta's flash drought is holding up Arkansas wheat sowing.

  • Corn harvested60% -6
  • Corn · Iowa harvested47% -20
  • Soybeans harvested79% +2
  • Winter wheat planted76% -1
  • Winter wheat emerged53% -1
  • Winter wheat · Arkansas planted29% -16

Bar = this year · white tick = 5-year average. Corn (still in field): 56% good/excellent, 18% poor/very poor.

USDA NASS Crop Progress 26 Oct 2026, via DTN and Brownfield

US export sales · week to 2026-10-22

next 2026-11-05

China kept buying: 2.58 Mt of soybean sales, 1.63 Mt of it to China — down 9% from the prior week's 2.84 Mt but still a big number. Wheat sales hit a marketing-year high (0.85 Mt) as the price fell; corn slipped to 1.30 Mt. Demand is there, yet soybeans still lost ground on the week — funds were selling, not buyers leaving.

Soybeans

2.58Mt

−9% w/w; China 1,627,000 t, Spain 225,000 t

Corn

1.30Mt

down from 1.53 Mt the week before

Wheat

0.85Mt

2026/27 marketing-year high

China 2026/27 soybean commitments vs the 25 Mt pledge13.45 Mt · 54%

USDA FAS weekly export sales 29 Oct 2026, via Brownfield and IndexBox

South America

Brazil is planting what most of the trade expects to be another record soybean crop. CONAB's first estimate (181.6 Mt) sits below private views of 185–190 Mt, so the risk to supply estimates runs up, not down — unless El Niño dries the north and northeast later in the season.

  • Brazil soy 2026/27 — CONAB 1st survey+0.7% vs 180.41 Mt; area 49.3 Mha; trade expects 185–190 Mt181.6 Mt2026-10-15
  • Brazil soy 2026/27 — Datagrofirst survey185.6 Mt2026-10
  • Brazil soy planting — AgRuralvs 15% a week earlier and 24% a year ago; excess rain slowed Paraná and the South26%2026-10-15
  • Brazil summer corn planting, Centre-South — AgRuralvs 51% a year ago48%2026-10-15
  • Brazil total grains 2026/27 — CONAB+1.4% y/y, a new record367.1 Mt2026-10-15

Cocoa — Ivory Coast

A 57% cut in what farmers are paid, a late main crop and a dry spell in the south-west: the supply story is tight — and price already knows it, having nearly doubled off its 52-week low (2,846). The next leg needs main-crop arrivals to keep disappointing.

  • Farmgate price 2026/271,200 CFA/kg

    maintained; −57% vs 2,800 a year earlier — set from 1.1 Mt of forward sales · 2026-09

  • Main crop timing8–10 weeks late

    the regulator expected weekly arrivals under 25 kt in October, with the bulk late Oct–Dec · 2026-09

  • Ivory Coast crop estimates1.7–1.8 Mt

    vs ~2.2 Mt last season (StoneX near 1.8 Mt) · 2026-09

Coffee — Brazil

The 2026/27 crop is large and the curve is steeply inverted (spot over deferred) — the market pays for coffee now, not later. The next leg depends on whether El Niño disrupts the Minas flowering that sets the 2027 crop.

  • Brazil 2026/27 crop71.4–75.9 M bags

    USDA 71.9 M, Marex 75.9 M · 2026-10

  • Global arabica 2026/27 surplus — Rabobank9.5 M bags

    raised · 2026-10

  • Minas Gerais rain, week to 11 Oct48% of normal

    flowering for the 2027/28 crop is the risk window · 2026-10-11

Palm oil · MPOB

next ~11-10

Stocks are heavy after the seasonal output peak, but October exports have rebounded hard. El Niño's dry season hits palm yields with a 6–12 month lag — a 2027 supply story, not a now one.

  • Total stocks3.51 Mt +24.5% m/m — near a three-year high
  • CPO stocks2.16 Mt +31.9% m/m
  • CPO production2.11 Mt +16.5% m/m (seasonal peak)
  • Palm oil exports1.22 Mt −12.1% m/m
  • Exports 1–20 Oct (cargo surveyors)+58–78% m/m via the Weather desk's Malaysia file, 27 Oct

MPOB September 2026 data, via The Star / Bernama and The Edge

Biofuels · US RFS

A record mandate is a structural floor under domestic soybean oil demand — the reason oil share stays high and why soy oil trades with diesel more than with soybeans.

  • Biomass-based diesel 20269.07 bn RIN gal incl. 70% reallocation of small-refinery exemptions
  • Biomass-based diesel 20279.20 bn RIN gal EPA: needs BBD output +60% vs 2025
  • Renewable-diesel equivalence value1.7 → 1.5 fewer physical gallons per RIN
  • Half-RIN import penaltydelayed to 2028 or later, not eliminated

EPA final RFS 'Set 2' rule (2026–2027), via Beveridge & Diamond and Farm Bureau

Livestock

Not refreshed this run — no October 2026 Cattle on Feed or Mexican-border status could be confirmed. The board's prices, curve and COT for cattle and hogs are live; the narrative is not.

Not confirmed this run — left out rather than guessed

  • ○Cumulative 2026/27 soybean commitments to China after the week to 22 Oct — not republished; the 13.45 Mt figure is as of 15 Oct.
  • ○UNICA second-half-September / first-half-October 2026 cane crush and sugar mix — not found.
  • ○ICE certified coffee and cocoa stocks for October 2026 — not found.
  • ○Cattle on Feed (October 2026) and the Mexican feeder-cattle border status — not confirmed.
  • ○Argentina wheat crop estimate after the 17–19 Oct frosts — only qualitative reports.
  • ○MPOB October date — not confirmed on MPOB's calendar; CONAB's next Brazil update is reported for 13 Nov (Brownfield), not confirmed on CONAB's site.
07

Spreads & relative value

The margins that decide behaviour: what crushers, refiners, blenders, roasters and feeders earn. Each one is ranked against its own three-year history. Current values use matched contract months where both legs list them; history uses the front-month splice.

Soybean board crush

ZM×0.022 +ZL×0.11 −ZS · F27

2.09

$/bu

75th pct

range since 2023-08: 0.68 – 4.18 · mean 1.69

High → processors paid to crush hard — supports bean demand, weighs on meal/oil

What a processor earns turning a bushel of beans into 44 lb of meal and 11 lb of oil.

Oil share of crush value

ZL ZM · F27

50.5

%

85th pct

range since 2023-08: 35.5 – 55.5 · mean 44.5

High → oil drives the crush (biofuel pull)

Soy oil's share of the crush's product value. Biofuel mandates keep it historically high.

Soy/corn ratio (new crop)

ZS Nov ZC Dec · X27/Z27

2.48

×

33th pct

range since 2023-08: 2.09 – 2.99 · mean 2.54

Low → corn pays better — next spring tilts to corn acres

Next year's planting incentive: above ~2.4 favours soybeans, below ~2.2 corn.

Kansas – Chicago wheat

KE −ZW · Z26

42.0

¢/bu

79th pct

range since 2023-08: -25.2 – 147.5 · mean 23.1

High → protein premium wide — HRW scarce relative to SRW

The premium for hard red winter (bread) wheat over soft red winter.

Wheat – corn

ZW −ZC · Z26

155

¢/bu

68th pct

range since 2023-08: 54 – 251 · mean 134

High → wheat expensive vs corn — no feed substitution

When wheat's premium over corn shrinks toward ~$1, wheat starts replacing corn in feed rations.

White sugar premium

W −SB×22.05 · H27

109

$/t

38th pct

range since 2023-09: 70 – 178 · mean 116

Mid → middle of its range — no pressure either way

The refining margin: white sugar in $/t minus raw sugar converted to $/t. ~$80–100 covers refining costs.

Arabica – robusta arb

KC −RC/22.05 · H27

132

¢/lb

58th pct

range since 2023-09: 15 – 206 · mean 103

Mid → middle of its range — no pressure either way

Arabica over robusta in ¢/lb. A wide arb pushes roasters to blend more robusta.

Soy oil – heating oil (BOHO)

ZL×7.5 lb/gal −HO

0.35

$/gal

3th pct

range since 2023-08: 0.10 – 2.35 · mean 1.18

Low → feedstock cheap vs diesel — blending margins healthy

Soy oil per gallon minus diesel. The wider it is, the more the biofuel credits have to pay.

Soy oil – palm oil

ZL×22.05 −FCPO/USDMYR

303

$/t

74th pct

range since 2023-10: -241 – 582 · mean 172

High → palm cheap — importers (India) switch to palm

The discount of palm to soy oil in dollars per tonne. Usually $50–150; a narrow discount chokes palm demand.

Feeder cattle / corn

GF $/cwt ÷ZC $/bu

74.1

×

66th pct

range since 2023-08: 43.1 – 95.2 · mean 66.7

Mid → middle of its range — no pressure either way

Pounds of corn a hundredweight of feeder calf buys — a rough feeding-margin gauge.

Hog / corn ratio

HE $/cwt ÷ZC $/bu

13.1

×

1th pct

range since 2023-08: 12.9 – 27.1 · mean 19.8

Low → hog feeding unprofitable — herd liquidation

The classic hog-feeding profit gauge: above ~16 is profitable.

08

Positioning

week of 2026-10-27

Who is crowded and who is moving, from the CFTC's managed-money and commercial-hedger books, in the COT v2 project's own vocabulary. Read for squeeze risk and crowding — not as a signal on its own.

LIVECOT v2 book is bleeding

Since the 2026-06-30 freeze: −0.76%/week net over 17 weeks (t -1.74, 29% of weeks positive, −12.4% cumulative). Its own research found the training-period edge in grains, softs and livestock flips negative out of sample, so the read-across counts it at ×0.75.

MarketSpecs vs 52-wk rangew/wCrowdFlowHedgersOI w/wBook2 years
ZCCorn20−20midcutting longsneutral · cutting hedges+1.3%S5L
ZWChicago wheat (SRW)-66−20crowded shortpressing shortslight · cutting hedges+1.8%—
KEKansas wheat (HRW)-1−16midpressing shortsneutral · quiet+1.5%—
ZRRough rice1000crowded longcoveringheavy · adding hedges+2.3%S5S
ZSSoybeans73−10crowded longcutting longsheavy · cutting hedges−10.4%—
ZMSoybean meal81−16crowded longcutting longsheavy · cutting hedges−4.0%—
ZLSoybean oil36−7midcutting longsneutral · cutting hedges+0.6%—
KCArabica coffee41−4midpressing shortsneutral · cutting hedges+0.5%S5S
RCRobusta coffee-100−107deep shortpressing shortslight · cutting hedges+4.1%S5L
CCNY cocoa-47−9midpressing shortsheavy · cutting hedges+2.3%S5S
CLondon cocoa-7−7midpressing shortsneutral · cutting hedges−0.5%—
SBRaw sugar No. 1190−10crowded longcutting longsheavy · cutting hedges−0.5%—
WWhite sugar No. 576−6crowded longcutting longsheavy · cutting hedges−4.0%—
CTCotton No. 247−13midcutting longsneutral · cutting hedges−0.8%—
LELive cattle41+4midbuilding longsneutral · adding hedges−0.3%—
GFFeeder cattle65+16crowded longbuilding longsneutral · adding hedges+4.6%—
HELean hogs-100−8deep shortpressing shortslight · cutting hedges+5.3%—

Crowd: deep short ≤ −90 · crowded short ≤ −60 · crowded long ≥ +60. Flow: pressing shorts / covering / building longs / cutting longs when a leg moves ≥ 0.4% of open interest. Hedgers light = commercial short hedging at the top of its range (h_rel ≥ −30) — the bear case is not confirmed by the people who own the crop. Book = the COT v2 signals holding this market in the week of 2026-10-20.

09

Outside markets

Ags don't trade alone. The dollar and the exporters' currencies set who sells; energy sets biofuel demand and fertiliser cost; risk appetite sets fund flows. The table shows which ag markets are actually trading with each driver right now.

US dollar index

−0.04%
101.92

5d −0.1% · 20d −0.2% · 60d +2.1%

every US export competes on price in dollars — a firmer dollar caps CBOT

USD/BRL

+1.02%
5.4397

5d +9.6% · 20d +4.3% · 60d +7.0%

Brazil sells soy, coffee, sugar and corn in dollars — a weaker real makes farmers sell

USD/MYR

+0.20%
4.0620

5d −0.6% · 20d −0.6% · 60d −0.6%

palm oil is priced in ringgit — a weaker ringgit cheapens it for importers

USD/CNH

+0.05%
6.6533

5d −0.2% · 20d −0.8% · 60d −1.4%

China is the marginal buyer of soybeans, corn, cotton and pork

WTI crude

−2.26%
101.77

5d +0.0% · 20d +13.8% · 60d +30.2%

biofuels tie soy oil, palm, corn (ethanol) and sugar (Brazilian ethanol) to energy

ULSD (heating oil)

−1.53%
4.6045

5d −2.8% · 20d +1.3% · 60d +18.0%

diesel is the price biodiesel and renewable diesel compete with

Henry Hub gas

+0.66%
2.9170

5d +12.1% · 20d −4.9% · 60d +9.6%

natural gas is ~70–90% of the cost of nitrogen fertiliser

S&P 500

−1.82%
7,580.07

5d −0.6% · 20d −1.9% · 60d −1.7%

risk appetite — index and macro funds add or cut commodities with it

Who is trading with what · 60-session correlation of daily returns

Above ±0.3 is a real link; near zero, the driver is not what is moving the market this quarter.

MarketDollarUSD/BRLCrudeS&P
ZCCorn-0.080.000.040.06
ZWChicago wheat (SRW)0.07-0.160.070.01
KEKansas wheat (HRW)-0.03-0.110.110.01
EBMParis milling wheat0.14-0.330.00-0.06
ZOOats0.11-0.220.09-0.01
ZRRough rice0.15-0.170.050.02
ZSSoybeans-0.01-0.270.21-0.04
ZMSoybean meal0.15-0.170.140.13
ZLSoybean oil0.01-0.060.32-0.15
FCPOPalm oil-0.04-0.170.20-0.13
KCArabica coffee-0.02-0.05-0.10-0.25
RCRobusta coffee0.16-0.06-0.02-0.22
CCNY cocoa0.10-0.080.130.11
CLondon cocoa0.24-0.040.110.10
SBRaw sugar No. 11-0.02-0.450.100.03
WWhite sugar No. 5-0.04-0.340.230.02
CTCotton No. 2-0.21-0.180.140.06
OJOrange juice0.01-0.16-0.100.14
LELive cattle-0.070.000.060.23
GFFeeder cattle-0.05-0.03-0.030.32
HELean hogs-0.16-0.22-0.050.07
10

Seasonality

The median move in each calendar month since about 2001, in ATR units — the typical day's range — so a soybean month and a cocoa month compare fairly and old back-adjusted prices cannot distort it. The last column is the next 21 sessions from today. Context only: well-known seasonals are crowded and none of this has been tested out of sample.

MarketJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecNext 21
ZCCorn+1.3+1.4−0.8−0.6+0.3−2.7−1.4−0.3−0.5+0.2−1.7+0.5−0.744%↑
ZWChicago wheat (SRW)+0.1−0.5−1.1−0.5−0.3−1.7+0.3−0.5+0.3+0.8−0.8−0.0−1.040%↑
KEKansas wheat (HRW)+0.4−0.9−0.9−0.2+0.2−1.5+0.3−0.1+0.50.0−1.4−0.5−1.336%↑
EBMParis milling wheat−0.7−0.6−0.8+0.5−0.5−1.9+1.1−0.1+0.2+2.0−0.9−0.3−0.544%↑
ZOOats+0.6+0.1−0.5+0.3+0.8+0.00.0+0.3+0.2+1.1−1.4−0.1−0.738%↑
ZRRough rice+0.8−0.6+0.4+0.7−0.7+0.1+1.0+0.1+0.1−1.6+1.8−1.2+0.964%↑
ZSSoybeans+1.2+1.4−0.3+0.6−0.3+0.5−0.7−0.5−1.2+0.8+0.2−0.0−0.640%↑
ZMSoybean meal+0.8+1.3+0.0+0.6−0.5+1.0−0.7+0.1−0.9+0.6+0.1+0.6−0.246%↑
ZLSoybean oil−0.6+1.9−0.1−0.1−0.2−0.1+0.3−0.1−1.3+1.5−0.1−0.5−0.150%↑
FCPOPalm oil−0.1+1.3−0.1−0.8+0.5−0.9+0.5+0.5−0.0+1.6+0.2+1.5+0.656%↑
KCArabica coffee+0.7−0.9−1.1−0.5−1.2−0.5−0.1−0.3−0.4−0.3+0.5−0.1−0.150%↑
RCRobusta coffee+1.6−1.1−0.3−0.2+0.7+0.0+0.5−1.5−0.7−0.5+0.7−0.3+0.356%↑
CCNY cocoa−0.1+0.9+0.3+1.2+0.3+0.5+0.1+0.6−0.2−0.6+0.9+1.2+1.369%↑
CLondon cocoa+0.1−0.1+1.0+0.5−0.3+1.3−0.5+0.8−0.2−1.2+0.9−0.7+1.364%↑
SBRaw sugar No. 11+1.1−0.1−1.8−1.4−0.5+0.7+0.9−0.0+0.4+0.3−0.2+0.3−0.246%↑
WWhite sugar No. 5+1.5+0.6−1.2+0.5−0.6+0.9+1.1−0.3+1.0−0.0−0.3−0.2−0.348%↑
CTCotton No. 2+0.1+0.3+0.3−0.5−1.6−0.7+0.1+0.2−1.2−0.2+0.1+0.6−0.635%↑
OJOrange juice−0.4−0.8+0.8−0.4+1.7+0.4+0.2−0.4−0.8+0.3+1.0−1.2+0.558%↑
LELive cattle+0.8+0.1−0.1−0.8+0.6+1.1+0.4−1.5+0.7+0.8+0.7+0.7+0.654%↑
GFFeeder cattle−1.2+0.5+0.8+0.6+1.5+1.1+0.3−0.2−0.0−0.4+0.0+0.8−0.446%↑
HELean hogs+1.0−0.5−1.3−0.2−0.2−0.9+0.3−1.5+1.3−0.2+0.1−1.0−0.148%↑

Cells: median move in ATR units (hover for mean and hit rate). Outlined column = this month. Back-adjusted continuous futures, TradingView.

11

Calendar

Five weeks of reports, expiries and holidays, dated in the exchange's time zone and timed in Singapore. Recurring USDA and CFTC releases are generated from their fixed schedules; ≈ marks a date computed from an exchange rule or a typical schedule — confirm it before relying on it.

Today · Mon 2 Nov

  • USDAExport InspectionsTue 00:00 SGT

    Bushels actually shipped last week.

    ZCZSZW

  • USDACrop ProgressTue 05:00 SGT

    Harvest pace and winter-wheat planting/condition.

    ZCZSZWKECT

Wed 4 Nov

  • EIAEIA ethanol output & stocks23:30 SGT

    Corn grind for ethanol.

    ZC

Thu 5 Nov

  • USDAWeekly Export Sales21:30 SGT

    Net new sales — watch China in soybeans.

    ZCZSZMZLZWCTLEHE

Fri 6 Nov

  • CFTCCFTC Commitments of TradersSat 04:30 SGT

    Positions as of Tuesday.

Mon 9 Nov

  • USDAExport InspectionsTue 00:00 SGT

    Bushels actually shipped last week.

    ZCZSZW

  • USDACrop ProgressTue 05:00 SGT

    Harvest pace and winter-wheat planting/condition.

    ZCZSZWKECT

Tue 10 Nov

  • USDAWASDE + Crop ProductionWed 01:00 SGT

    USDA's published 2026 schedule. The corn yield is the number — 181.2 last month.

    ZCZSZMZLZWKECTZR

  • DATAMPOB October palm data≈

    MPOB usually publishes around the 10th — confirm the date.

    FCPOZL

Wed 11 Nov

  • EIAEIA ethanol output & stocks23:30 SGT

    Corn grind for ethanol.

    ZC

Thu 12 Nov

  • USDAWeekly Export Sales21:30 SGT

    Net new sales — watch China in soybeans.

    ZCZSZMZLZWCTLEHE

  • CLIMATENOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion22:00 SGT

    Issued the second Thursday of each month.

Fri 13 Nov

  • CFTCCFTC Commitments of TradersSat 04:30 SGT

    Positions as of Tuesday.

  • DATACONAB Brazil crop update≈

    Date as reported by Brownfield on 30 Oct; confirm on CONAB's calendar.

    ZSZCKCSB

Mon 16 Nov

  • USDAExport InspectionsTue 00:00 SGT

    Bushels actually shipped last week.

    ZCZSZW

  • USDACrop ProgressTue 05:00 SGT

    Harvest pace and winter-wheat planting/condition.

    ZCZSZWKECT

  • EXPIRYCC Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (10 business days before the first business day of the delivery month). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    CC

Wed 18 Nov

  • EIAEIA ethanol output & stocks23:30 SGT

    Corn grind for ethanol.

    ZC

Thu 19 Nov

  • USDAWeekly Export Sales21:30 SGT

    Net new sales — watch China in soybeans.

    ZCZSZMZLZWCTLEHE

  • CLIMATENOAA CPC seasonal outlook (DJF)

    Next issuance per CPC, quoted in the Weather desk's US Midwest file.

    ZWKE

  • EXPIRYKC Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (7 business days before the first business day of the delivery month). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    KC

Fri 20 Nov

  • EXPIRYZC Z26 options expire≈

    Standard options on the front month (computed from the CBOT rule).

    ZC

  • EXPIRYZW Z26 options expire≈

    Standard options on the front month (computed from the CBOT rule).

    ZW

  • EXPIRYKE Z26 options expire≈

    Standard options on the front month (computed from the CBOT rule).

    KE

  • EXPIRYZO Z26 options expire≈

    Standard options on the front month (computed from the CBOT rule).

    ZO

  • EXPIRYZM Z26 options expire≈

    Standard options on the front month (computed from the CBOT rule).

    ZM

  • EXPIRYZL Z26 options expire≈

    Standard options on the front month (computed from the CBOT rule).

    ZL

  • CFTCCFTC Commitments of TradersSat 04:30 SGT

    Positions as of Tuesday.

Mon 23 Nov

  • USDAExport InspectionsTue 00:00 SGT

    Bushels actually shipped last week.

    ZCZSZW

  • USDACrop ProgressTue 05:00 SGT

    Harvest pace and winter-wheat planting/condition.

    ZCZSZWKECT

  • EXPIRYCT Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (5 business days before the first business day of the delivery month). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    CT

Thu 26 Nov

  • HOLIDAYUS Thanksgiving — CME and ICE US closed

    Friday 27 Nov is a shortened session. Weekly export sales move to Friday; COT to Monday 30 Nov.

Fri 27 Nov

  • USDAWeekly Export Sales21:30 SGT

    Net new sales — watch China in soybeans. Moved to Friday for Thanksgiving.

    ZCZSZMZLZWCTLEHE

Mon 30 Nov

  • USDAExport InspectionsTue 00:00 SGT

    Bushels actually shipped last week.

    ZCZSZW

  • CFTCCFTC Commitments of TradersTue 04:30 SGT

    Positions as of Tuesday. Delayed to Monday by Thanksgiving.

  • USDACrop ProgressTue 05:00 SGT

    Harvest pace and winter-wheat planting/condition.

    ZCZSZWKECT

  • EXPIRYZC Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (last business day of the month before delivery). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    ZC

  • EXPIRYZW Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (last business day of the month before delivery). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    ZW

  • EXPIRYKE Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (last business day of the month before delivery). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    KE

  • EXPIRYZO Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (last business day of the month before delivery). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    ZO

  • EXPIRYZM Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (last business day of the month before delivery). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    ZM

  • EXPIRYZL Z26 first notice day≈

    Computed from the exchange rule (last business day of the month before delivery). Longs roll before this — confirm on the exchange calendar.

    ZL

12

Ledger

The standing rules, the research behind every signal on this page, and the contract arithmetic — what one ATR costs per lot today.

Research library

No systematic signal in the owner's library has a validated edge in agricultural futures. The technical map found nothing that holds across ags, softs and meats; COT rules that worked in training flipped negative out of sample for grains, softs and livestock; the weather engine has never been backtested. The desk therefore treats every signal as one read among several, sizes ags at the library's smallest risk unit (0.55%), and leans on fundamentals, curve structure and positioning to frame trades — not on a model.

  • KILLEDTechnical toolkit on ags, softs and meats

    "Ags/Softs/Meats: NOTHING ≥70% — structurally hostile to this toolkit." Metals reward trend continuation, energy rewards buying weakness in quiet, FX only mean-reverts; ags reward none of them.

    Desk use · No indicator rule is traded on its own in this sleeve. Technical levels are used for placement (entries, stops), not for direction.

    Technical Valid Signals · STRATEGY-LIBRARY.md · STD7 by-universe split (2026-07-15)

  • VALIDATEDR1 coiled breakout (long only)

    Transferred to 6/6 never-seen markets; 1990–2026 portfolio with slippage Sharpe 0.66. Validated at UNIVERSE level — there is no separate ag-only validation.

    Desk use · The live variant R1-X5r (below) is read daily; an armed ag buy-stop is shown on the board.

    Technical Valid Signals · STRATEGY-LIBRARY.md · S-01 (frozen 2026-07-10)

  • FROZENR1-X5r — R1 + quiet gate (BB squeeze or ADX<20), shadow-tracked

    In-sample; split-sample test supports the quiet gate. Paper record lives in x5_fired_log.txt.

    Desk use · Armed state comes straight from x5_alert_sync.py --json — the same feed CONSOL uses. Long only.

    Technical Valid Signals · STD7-GRID · X5-ALERT-RUNBOOK.md (adopted 2026-07-20)

  • KILLEDSystematic shorts (trend, breakdown, fade)

    Falsified five times: negative after slippage every time.

    Desk use · Short ideas are discretionary only — they need a fundamental reason (stocks building, demand gone) and half size. The desk never shorts a market because a model says so.

    Technical Valid Signals · PDCA-5/6 and the R10–R17 batch

  • LIVECOT v2 positioning book (S1–S5)

    Live since the 30 Jun 2026 freeze and losing (see the record on the page). By asset class, "FX, Grains, Softs, Livestock: train-positive rules flip negative OOS — NOISE / overfit"; only metals hold a standalone edge.

    Desk use · Positioning is read for context — who is crowded, who is covering — and as squeeze-risk for shorts. It is weighted at half (the CONSOL rule for a bleeding layer) and never trades alone.

    COT v2 · FRAMEWORK.md, BACKTEST_FINDINGS.md §4b, walkforward_summary.json

  • UNTESTEDWeather-versus-curve gap (this site's engine)

    No backtest. Every weight is labelled 'borrowed until backtested' in the config.

    Desk use · A disciplined way to ask 'has the curve already priced this weather?' — a framing tool for the fundamental view, not a signal.

    Weather section · src/lib/engine.ts · src/config/engine.ts

  • CONTEXTSeasonality (calendar-month and next-21-session drift)

    ~25 observations per window; never tested out of sample; well-known seasonals are crowded.

    Desk use · Shown to explain flows (harvest lows, South American weather premium) — never scored as a reason to trade.

    This desk's builder, back-adjusted continuous futures since ~2001

  • CONTEXTAgs as crisis alpha

    The R1-X3 book made +25% in the dot-com bear and +22% in the GFC — ags trends helped. In-sample.

    Desk use · Why the R1-X5 book adds 1.5× risk when the S&P is below its 200-day.

    Technical Valid Signals · PDCA-5 (R1-X3 book)

Desk doctrine

  1. 01Size every ag idea at 0.55% risk — the R1-X5 book's ag unit. Halve it when 20-day volatility is above its 85th percentile.
  2. 02Stops at least 2.5 ATR from entry; never inside a day's normal range.
  3. 03No systematic shorts. A short needs a balance-sheet reason (stocks building, demand gone) and half size.
  4. 04Roll before first notice day — never hold a deliverable contract into delivery.
  5. 05No new positions in the 30 minutes before WASDE, Crop Production or Grain Stocks.
  6. 06Weather frames the trade; price confirms it. Never trade a weather gap against the trend.

Position sizer

Risk budget

1,375

Risk / lot (USD)

2,141

Lots

0.64

Under one lot at this risk — skip the trade or use the mini/micro contract if one exists.

ContractExchangeSizeTickTick value1 ATR / lotMonthsHours (exchange time)
ZCCornFND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT5,000 bu0.25 ¢/buUSD 12.5USD 4218.42 ptsHKNUZSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
ZWChicago wheat (SRW)FND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT5,000 bu0.25 ¢/buUSD 12.5USD 74814.97 ptsHKNUZSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
KEKansas wheat (HRW)FND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT5,000 bu0.25 ¢/buUSD 12.5USD 75815.16 ptsHKNUZSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
EBMParis milling wheatFND: expiry 10th calendar day of the delivery month (or next business day)EURONEXT50 t0.25 €/tEUR 12.5EUR 2494.98 ptsHKUZMon–Fri 10:45–18:30 CET
ZOOatsFND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT5,000 bu0.25 ¢/buUSD 12.5USD 54210.83 ptsHKNUZSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
ZRRough riceFND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT2,000 cwt0.005 $/cwtUSD 10USD 6600.330 ptsFHKNUXSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
ZSSoybeansFND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT5,000 bu0.25 ¢/buUSD 12.5USD 85617.13 ptsFHKNQUXSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
ZMSoybean mealFND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT100 short tons0.1 $/stUSD 10USD 7367.4 ptsFHKNQUVZSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
ZLSoybean oilFND: last business day of the month before deliveryCBOT60,000 lb0.01 ¢/lbUSD 6USD 7441.24 ptsFHKNQUVZSun–Fri 19:00–07:45 + 08:30–13:20 CT
FCPOPalm oilFND: expiry 15th of the delivery month (or prior business day)MYX25 t1 MYR/tMYR 25MYR 2,41697 ptsFGHJKMNQUVXZMon–Fri 10:30–12:30 + 14:30–18:00 MY (+ night 21:00–23:30)
KCArabica coffeeFND: 7 business days before the first business day of the delivery monthICEUS37,500 lb0.05 ¢/lbUSD 18.75USD 4,01310.70 ptsHKNUZMon–Fri 04:15–13:30 ET
RCRobusta coffeeFND: 4 business days before the first business day of the delivery monthICEEUR10 t1 $/tUSD 10USD 1,031103 ptsFHKNUXMon–Fri 09:00–17:30 UK
CCNY cocoaFND: 10 business days before the first business day of the delivery monthICEUS10 t1 $/tUSD 10USD 2,415242 ptsHKNUZMon–Fri 04:45–13:30 ET
CLondon cocoaFND: 10 business days before the first business day of the delivery monthICEEUR10 t1 £/tGBP 10GBP 1,658166 ptsHKNUZMon–Fri 09:30–16:50 UK
SBRaw sugar No. 11FND: no FND — the contract expires on the last business day of the month before deliveryICEUS112,000 lb0.01 ¢/lbUSD 11.2USD 6540.58 ptsHKNVMon–Fri 03:30–13:00 ET
WWhite sugar No. 5FND: expires 16 calendar days before the delivery monthICEEUR50 t0.1 $/tUSD 5USD 71814.4 ptsHKQVZMon–Fri 08:45–17:55 UK
CTCotton No. 2FND: 5 business days before the first business day of the delivery monthICEUS50,000 lb0.01 ¢/lbUSD 5USD 7391.48 ptsHKNVZSun–Fri 21:00–14:20 ET
OJOrange juiceFND: first business day after the last trading day (14th business day before month-end)ICEUS15,000 lb0.05 ¢/lbUSD 7.5USD 1,0627.08 ptsFHKNUXMon–Fri 08:00–14:00 ET
LELive cattleFND: physical delivery — notices from the first business day of the contract monthCME40,000 lb0.025 ¢/lbUSD 10USD 1,1832.958 ptsGJMQVZMon–Fri 08:30–13:05 CT
GFFeeder cattleFND: cash-settled to the CME Feeder Cattle Index — last Thursday of the monthCME50,000 lb0.025 ¢/lbUSD 12.5USD 2,6105.221 ptsFHJKQUVXMon–Fri 08:30–13:05 CT
HELean hogsFND: cash-settled to the CME Lean Hog Index — 10th business day of the contract monthCME40,000 lb0.025 ¢/lbUSD 10USD 6701.676 ptsGJKMNQVZMon–Fri 08:30–13:05 CT

Contract terms from the exchanges' specifications (CME Group, ICE US, ICE Futures Europe, Euronext, Bursa Malaysia). Check the exchange before trading a roll or delivery.